Posted March 14, 2025

The coming election is likely to be close

As expected, Mark Carney won the Liberal leadership and became the Prime Minister. As of March 9th, polls show a Conservative 6% lead in votes, the same as a week earlier.

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The January 5th report from poll aggregator 338 had the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 25%. That translated into the Liberals dropping from 170 seats in parliament in the 2021 election to an estimated 35 seats in 2025. The Conservatives were at 238.

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As 2024 came to an end, Canada’s Liberals faced grim prospects. Dozens of MPs, including many ministers had resigned or indicated that they would not be offering for the 2025 election.

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Justin Trudeau’s departure is a blessing for Canada, but the resulting Liberal leadership race comes at a most inconvenient time.

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Trudeau and the Liberals were painfully aware of the deteriorating support for him and the party. The January 5th report from poll aggregator 338 had the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 25%.

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