Rapid growth has been good for Nova Scotia
Posted January 9, 2026
After three years of fiscal surpluses Nova Scotia is projecting a $1.29 billion deficit for the year ending March 31, 2026, more than double the combined surpluses in the previous three fiscal years. Resuming strong population growth must be part of the solution.
When Tim Houston was elected Premier of Nova Scotia in August 2021 the population was passing one million. He had campaigned on a vision of doubling that amount by 2060. It seemed like a good idea at the time, but the resources needed to support that pace were conspicuously absent.
Such an increase required more of everything, especially health care professionals and facilities, and new housing which needed more tradespeople.
The population of Nova Scotia grew by 100,000 in the four years ending December 31, 2024, consistent with Canada’s 10% growth.
The Trudeau Liberals made a mess of what had for decades been a successful immigration process. They lost control of the number of non-permanent immigrants: temporary foreign workers (TFWs) and international students.
They then implemented a clumsy correction, taking away much of the crucial revenue from international students that universities needed to balance their accounts. This has seriously damaged Canada’s reputation as a place to study. Prospective students with offers from more than one country are more likely to choose places like Australia and the United Kingdom.
There was no population growth in 2025. The net reduction in non-permanent immigrants offset the impact of permanent immigrants and net positive inter-provincial migrations.
The 2025 budget’s plan for future growth is a rejection of Houston’s worthy goal: “In the updated projections, population growth is forecast to be a slow 0.7 per cent in 2026 and 0.6 per cent in 2027, slowing to around 0.5 per cent per year over the next ten years.”
Slower population growth is expected to result in weaker labour force (0.5 per cent) and employment growth (0.4 per cent) in 2026. The combined net increases predicted for the next four years add up to about 25,000 new Nova Scotians, the same as the twelve-month average from 2021 to 2024.
There have been two major challenges with the rapid growth since 2021: not enough housing and not enough health care resources.
There has been great progress on housing. Five years ago there was a shortage of tradespeople, a problem which has eased considerably.
On July 1, 2025, Nova Scotia had 14,106 units under construction across all dwelling types (single, semi-detached, row, and apartment). The Halifax Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) accounted for 12,290 of these units, with 11,425 apartments making up the bulk.
The average number of Nova Scotians per household in the 2021 Census was 2.3. Construction was begun on more than 8,300 new units in 2025.
That is enough to house 19,000 people, about 1.7% of the population at the beginning of the year.
The news is not all good. The new units are mostly targeted at middle- or upper-income households. Developers are having to offer incentives to lease new units.
The Houston government has worked with non-governmental organizations to increase supply for lower income families. There is a need to incentivise builders to provide some lower priced units, not necessarily in the same buildings as their other tenants.
Migrants also need health care. As of Nov. 1, 93.4% of Nova Scotians were attached to a primary care provider, leaving 69,420 Nova Scotians on the Need a Family Practice Registry. Those who have primary care sometimes wait a long time to see a specialist.
Notwithstanding that, Nova Scotia has positive net immigration from other provinces. It added 3,000 in the 12 months ending in October, mostly from Ontario.
That is much better than a few years ago, but there are still many people who want to move to Nova Scotia but are discouraged by the difficulty of getting health care.
The right strategy today for Nova Scotia’s growth is to focus on students and younger families. Their health care needs are less frequent and they are comfortable using online services or calls to 811 for health care.
Students (both Canadian and international) are less concerned about having a primary provider. They can share accommodations and are not concerned about having amenities at their residence.
Houston’s commitment to doubling our population was a good idea. It has already enabled many worthwhile developments. To make doubling happen by 2060 will require annual growth rates of 1.8%. That rate will not be possible in the near future, but we should gradually progress to that level.
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