The Conservatives need a wider tent
Posted November 21, 2025
Prospects for the next election are viewed very differently by the various players.
The New Democratic Party is in disarray. Having been reduced from 25 to 7 seats in the 2025 election it has little clout. Yes it could have triggered another election by voting differently on Monday but they are not in a position to go to the polls. Finances are weak and the party is not scheduled to choose its next leader until March.
Nova Scotia MP Chris D’Entremont has a well-seasoned and discerning insight into the meanderings of political preference. His margin over Liberal Ronnie LeBlanc in the 2025 federal election was a mere 1.1%, down from a 19% margin over Alexys Chamberlain in 2021.
Over the years he has been able to work with colleagues to the right of him but he is not a fan of Poilievre’s style. He will have been pessimistic of his prospects for being re-elected. He is not alone.
It was not a complete surprise when he walked across the floor to the Liberals. The only disappointed Liberal may be Ronnie LeBlanc.
MP Matt Jeneroux of Edmonton chose to resign in a gracious statement that was commendably non-partisan.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has done a great service to Canada. He harped relentlessly on the inequities of the carbon tax. That and voters being tired of Trudeau for other reasons earned Poilievre a large lead in the polls.
The Liberal caucus finally got the message. Led by former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, they pushed Trudeau out of office. Unfortunately for Poilievre, the replacement was the highly credible Mark Carney, who was able to distance himself from Trudeau and quickly dropped the carbon tax.
The Liberals won the succeeding election, just three seats short of a majority.
| Federal Election Results | ||
| 2021 | 2025 | |
| Liberal | 160 | 169 |
| Conservative | 119 | 144 |
| Block Québécois | 32 | 22 |
| New Democratic Party | 25 | 7 |
| Green | 2 | 1 |
On Monday the Liberal budget barely passed. Two NDP MPs and two Conservative MPs abstained from voting. Green Party Leader Elizabeth May voted yes.
It is possible that the opposition could trigger an election by defeating one of the bills implementing the budget. But it is unlikely that any of the parties will change their position.
That leaves Poilievre to prepare for his leadership review in January. His proven strength is as a critic of the Liberals. But his prospects in the polls are bad and getting worse. An early November poll by the Angus Reid Institute had Mark Carney at 52% approval against 39% disapproval, for a net rating of +13. Poilievre had just 34% positive views compared to 60% who view him unfavourably.
There is nothing he can do to change Canadians’ perspectives between now and January.
He is very popular with most of his MPs and party stalwarts. They admire his work ethic and like his ideas. His popularity with some voters is deep but his reach is not as wide as Carney’s by a long shot. He is likely to be confirmed at the leadership review in January.
The ability to widen his number of supporters is more in question. The MPs and party members at the review should take a long look at the polls and listen to people who are not Conservative supporters.
It is hard to imagine a scenario that causes voters to have a change of heart. Carney is not providing a carbon tax target, and is giving good attention to western provinces that Trudeau ignored. He is managing the Trump threat as well as can be expected.
In February, Ontario Premier Doug Ford was re-elected to a third majority government. He has been actively responding to the tariff actions from Donald Trump, threatening to raise the cost of electricity being sent south or cutting it off altogether.
More recently, he spent $75 million of taxpayers money showing an ad on American TV in which former Republican president Reagan proclaims the problems with tariffs. Observers might conclude that Ford is auditioning for a national role.
Carney’s Liberals won 70 seats in Ontario in the 2025 election. The Conservatives won 52. Ford would be the best bet for improving that outcome.
Nova Scotia premier Tim Houston has also made a name for himself across the country, leading efforts to remove interprovincial trade barriers. He would be an asset in Nova Scotia (where Liberals won 10 seats on election day, and now have all 11) and to some extent the other Atlantic provinces, but has declared that his focus is provincial.
Neither premier was actively supporting the Conservatives in the 2025 election. Poilievre would be wise to cultivate a good relationship with both of them, as well as the recently elected premiers of Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island.
For the Conservatives to have a chance they need a leader who cherishes centrists in the party. If Poilievre does not do that he will be looking at another leadership review in 2029.