The election is about health care, housing, taxes and fees
Posted November 22, 2024
Nova Scotia’s provincial election has none of the drama and uncertainty that surrounded the voting in the republic to the south. We should be grateful.
Pollsters often get it wrong, but in the present case the only question is how large a majority the Progressive Conservatives will get. Present estimates have them getting as many as 40 of the 55 seats, up from 31 in the 2021 election.
Premier Houston’s lead-up to the announcement was not dignified. He pre-empted the fixed election date he had created on the preposterous grounds that a new mandate was needed for Nova Scotia to be respected in Ottawa. A few days before the election was called, he had the government mail everyone, at taxpayer expense, a promotional report on all the things they have done on health care.
He hardly needed the extra advantage. Taxpayers make annual contributions to the political parties based on their vote count in the most recent election. In 2024 the PCs received $337,000, the Liberals $322,000, and the NDP $184,000.
Clearly the PCs have been doing much better in fundraising from supporters. At the end of 2023 they had $904,000, compared to $550,000 for the Liberals and $445,000 for the NDP.
It is not fun to be the leader of the Nova Scotia Liberal Party. There are two federal albatrosses hanging around Zach Churchill’s neck. First is the carbon tax, which has been effectively demonized by federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
Second is Justin Trudeau. During his early years he was a genuine asset for provincial counterparts. Canadians are clearly tired of both his style and his substance. Houston seeks ways to remind Nova Scotians that Churchill is on the same team. That is unfair of course, as it was when the provincial Liberals traded on Harper’s low popularity in 2013.
To her credit, New Brunswick Liberal Leader Susan Holt overcame both of those obstacles. She became premier this month, defeating Progressive Conservative Blaine Higgs, who had issues keeping this team on board.
Houston has not encouraged federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to visit. Poilievre’s pit bull style has been effective for an opposition party but does not work for a party in power.
NDP leader Claudia Chender has been glad to receive a visit by federal leader Jagmeet Singh. This is not a cycle in which that will make a difference.
The three parties largely focus on the same issues: health care, availability and affordability of housing, and saving people money.
The opposition parties point out that Houston has not “fixed” healthcare, his central promise in the 2021election. True enough, but neither Churchill nor Chender can persuasively argue that they would have done better. Nova Scotia has been a leader in trying new ideas such as expanded scopes for pharmacists.
The three platforms call for more doctors and nurses, more collaborative care centers, more equipment, and more programs. Construction of more housing is to be facilitated by easing municipal constraints, reducing red tape, and investing in more social housing. The NDP’s platform has the biggest cost for subsidizing rents. Renters are to be protected by reduced caps on rent increases and eliminating fixed term leases.
The most expensive promises are reductions in taxes and fees, including free parking at hospitals, eliminating bridge tolls, lowering the HST, lowering income taxes, and meddling with electricity rates. The Liberals would make public transport free and have the biggest tax cut. The NDP would eliminate the gas tax, license fees, and taxes on phone and internet services.
Perhaps the least wise proposal is the PC idea to limit increases in electricity rates to the average of other provinces. Nova Scotia’s electricity is still significantly dependent on the prices of carbon fuels. Quebec and British Columbia are primarily hydroelectric, Ontario is primarily nuclearm and so on. There is no reason for their costs to be correlated with Nova Scotia.
This is in the reminiscent of the “Buy Local” and “Better Paycheck Guarantee” promises in the 2021 election. Fortunately, the former was heavily watered down and the latter was entirely discarded. To his credit Houston willingly admits mistakes.
The annual cost of the Liberal and NDP platforms are each above $1 billion. The PCs estimate a deficit of $142 million in the first year and more than $200 million subsequently. The Liberal and NDP deficits would be much higher.
The postal strike has made it harder to help voters find out where to vote. Unfortunately, that and a perception that the outcome is already known may result in fewer people voting.
The parties agree on what the major issues are. The contest is mostly about perceptions of competence. Beyond repeating that Houston has not “fixed” health care, the opposition parties don’t have a lot to work with.