Canadian political preferences have changed abruptly
Posted March 7, 2025
The January 5th report from poll aggregator 338 had the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 25%. That translated into the Liberals dropping from 170 seats in parliament in the 2021 election to an estimated 35 seats in 2025. The Conservatives were at 238.
As of March 1st, the Conservatives’ seat forecast shrank to 170, just short of a majority, while the Liberals are up to 138, about four times their projection on January 5th.
Voting percentages have moved swiftly in favour of the Liberals. The Conservative lead in voting intentions has shrunk to 6%. Estimates of Liberal support are increasing at the expense of the NDP and Bloc Quebecois, as well as the Conservatives. What accounts for the speed and extent of the change?
The biggest reason for the abysmal numbers was voters’ dismal opinion of Justin Trudeau. Second was the carbon tax, the true cost of which had been concealed by the Liberals.
Trudeau announced his intention to step down the next day, prompting a competition to replace him. That alone was bound to improve the party’s prospects. But the pace and extent are dramatic.
Donald Trump’s clumsy tariffs and associated threats to Canadian sovereignty have dominated the news. Trudeau continues to be Prime Minister until his successor is named. Having navigated the tariff threat during Trump’s first term, he and the relevant ministers have been doing what is possible to minimize the damage.
The daily coverage of their efforts has been a boon for the party. So has the leadership race, especially for Mark Carney, who would not otherwise be highly visible. All of the candidates have promised to get rid of the current carbon tax, taking away Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s favourite talking point.
It is not true to say that the Conservative party has no policies. It has a fifty-page declaration speaking to almost every area of policy, with the disgraceful absence of climate change. With the media dominated by tariffs and the leadership race, it is hard for the party and Poilievre to get attention.
His announcements to date are about undoing things—carbon tax, size of government, reducing foreign aid. “Canada First” has a regrettable similarity to Trump.
Former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney is the odds-on favourite to be announced as new Liberal leader and Prime Minister on Sunday. He has the most endorsements from cabinet ministers and does not have to answer for any of Trudeau’s dreadful choices.
Carney has his own issues. His proposed replacement to the carbon tax will be charged tobig emitters, but he does not acknowledge that most of the cost will end up being charged to households.
His messages about fiscal discipline are a master class in obfuscation. He talks about separate budgets for operations and capital spending without a clear distinction between the two.
He has revealed no plans to reduce the intrusions into provincial health care or any of the bureaucracy that has grown 40 percent under Trudeau.
On March 6th his website claimed that “As Governor of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 financial crisis, Mark guided Canada through one of the most turbulent economic periods in modern history”. That is a huge stretch. The Bank did its role well, including support of asset liquidity, but that is at most half the story.
A CBC article in 2014 quoted Ian Lee of the Sprott School of Business at Carleton University:
“(Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s) No. 1 legacy is when the U.S. was going over the cliff, and 100-year-old banks were falling, Jim Flaherty kept the ship of state called Canada on an even keel…”
As financial markets were freezing, Flaherty interceded by buying up billions of dollars of government-backed mortgages, supporting confidence in the banks and helping to sustain lending and borrowing in the country. Carney should instruct his team to correct the platform document.
Asked about how he would be different from Trudeau, he said, “I’m different in the following respects,” citing his intention to be “laser focused” on the economy and his tendency to be “much more of a hands-on manager” focused on “results and getting things done.” Readers will note that this is about style, not substance. Perhaps that is the preferred choice when catering to members of the Liberal party, not the voting public.
Carney has said that he will call an election right away if he wins on Sunday. That is the right choice for the country and certainly serves the Liberals’ desire to take advantage of their visibility and momentum.
Carney’s campaign will feature his resume: Harvard, Oxford, investment banker, senior civil servant, central bank Governor in Canada and England. Absent the existential threats from Trump that might not be enough to save the Liberals from a much-needed time out.
The threat is not going away any time soon. It may be with us for a generation. Carney is well informed on how things work in the United States and elsewhere. Voters will look for the leader with the best grasp of the economic issues, and the patience and gravitas needed to deal with Trump.
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