Fearless predictions on the Liberal leadership race and subsequent election
Posted January 24, 2025
Justin Trudeau’s departure is a blessing for Canada, but the resulting Liberal leadership race comes at a most inconvenient time.
Donald Trump’s inauguration as president opens the door to all kinds of problems. He is withdrawing the United States from important international bodies including the World Health Organization and the Paris Agreement on climate change. Instead, he wants to accelerate oil and gas production in the United States.
During the election campaign he threatened to slap 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada. On day one he teased with a statement that the matter would be studied in advance of action. Then he renewed his threat, saying he would announce the tariffs a little later, on February 1st.
Sometimes he attributes the decision to “unfair trade practices” by Mexico and Canada. On other days he says it is about the problem of people arriving illegally from both countries.
Canada had caused problems by temporarily lifting travel visa requirements from many countries including Mexico, providing a different route for people to enter the United States illegally. That has been reversed, and according to Liberal ministers there is now good cooperation between agencies on both sides of the border.
Meanwhile, the race is on to choose the next Liberal leader and prime minister of Canada. Some ministers have removed themselves from contention, in part because of the border challenges.
Candidates had to declare their intention to run and pay the $350,000 entry fee by January 23. The short interval caused several ministers to take themselves out of the running. The race will conclude on Monday, March 9th, less than seven weeks after the campaigning becomes official.
The competition is likely to boil down to Freeland and Carney. She is well known and regarded by the caucus, and deserves credit for dismounting Trudeau.
Her letter of resignation stiffened MPs’ willingness to urge Trudeau to retire. That distanced her somewhat from the Liberal record, but she owns many of the unpopular measures, especially the carbon tax.
She has the great merit that Trump doesn’t like her, based on their dealings the tariff debates the first time he was president. She says that she would ditch the carbon tax without indicating what would replace it.
Mark Carney has been a senior civil servant, an investment banker, Governor of the Bank of Canada, and Governor of the Bank of England. Since then, he has been busy in senior corporate roles and promoting measures to slow climate change.
He says that the carbon tax has to go, but says, “We need to replace it with something else… it has to be something that is at least, if not more, effective.”
His advantage is that he does not own the track record of the Trudeau government. The dreadful polling numbers for the Liberals are a strong call for substantial change. Carney is winning the most support from ministers. He is likely to prevail.
| Safe | Likely | Leaning | Toss up | Seat-by-seat projection | Last election (2021) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cons. | 155 | 42 | 23 | 18 | 238 [205-259] | 119 |
| Bloc | 24 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 42 [38-50] | 32 |
| Lib. | 3 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 41 [21-68] | 160 |
| NDP | 4 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 21 [10-33] | 25 |
| Green | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 [0-3] | 2 |
(Source: 338canada.com)
His time as prime minister will be short. He will have two weeks in the role before parliament reopens. A non-confidence vote is certain. If successful, there would be an election in May. That will require support from the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP.
Current polling has the Bloc looking at a big jump in seat numbers. They certainly will support the Conservatives on any such motion.
The NDP are looking at losses to the Conservatives in British Columbia, which will be offset by gains from the Liberals in Ontario and Quebec. That is not an attractive prospect, but an election must happen by October 20th.
During that time, Carney would have a chance to establish himself in the public mind. That would be just as big a threat to the NDP as for the Conservatives. Jagmeet Singh would be wise to pull the trigger.
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has been effective in opposition. But he needs to do more than beating the carbon tax drum.
The Liberal candidates have disavowed the carbon tax but promised to do something that will achieve the same result or better. That may somewhat reduce the topic’s impact.
It will also challenge Poilievre to say if he believes that climate change is due to human activity. The response may enable Liberals to liken him to Trump.
In order to hold his current strong position, Poilievre must present a platform that is cogent and constructive. He will not perform well in a debate on economic matters with Carney.
The polls up to January 19th have the Liberals winning 41 seats, compared to 170 in 2021. Carney would do well to double the current projection. He might even reach 100. In most scenarios the Conservatives will earn a majority government.
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