The Liberals have the wind at their backs
Posted February 14, 2025
As 2024 came to an end, Canada’s Liberals faced grim prospects. Dozens of MPs, including many ministers had resigned or indicated that they would not be offering for the 2025 election.
They had two albatrosses hanging around their necks. Prime Minister Trudeau was deeply unpopular, based on both his substance and style, and opposition to the carbon tax was growing in numbers and intensity, energetically cultivated by Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
On January 5th, polls aggregator 338Canada had the Conservatives winning 235 seats while the Liberals were languishing at 25, which would leave them at third place behind the Bloc Quebecois.
On January 6th, in the face of a broad caucus revolt, Trudeau said he would resign as soon as the party chose a new leader, now scheduled for March 9th. One less albatross.
Trump said he would announce 25% tariffs against Mexico and Canada on Feb 1st, which he did, but then quickly postponed. Which of all this is just bullying and which is for real is hard to discern.
It was bad for Canada but a political blessing for the Liberals. Trudeau and various ministers got lots of TV time showing them fight the good fight for Team Canada.
It has left Poilievre in an awkward position. For the last six months he has been beating on the carbon tax drum and demanding a “carbon tax election.”
Canadians’ resistance to that tax has been based on a gut feel that the carbon tax rebate did not make up for the carbon tax they were paying. The gut feel was right. The tax’s impact on suppliers and government services have added substantially to their taxes and grocery bills.
Now, the leading contenders for the Liberal leadership have said that they will ditch the carbon tax but replace it with something different. Chrystia Freeland says she will “make difficult decisions to meet our emissions targets and make sure big polluters pay for their outsized emissions.”
On the same theme, Mark Carney has said that the replacement will be even bigger than the current carbon tax, and the proceeds will be used to reward Canadians who make climate friendly choices—insulating their houses, and buying energy efficient appliances and electric cars (Elon Musk thanks you).
Goodbye to the other albatross? Probably not.
Apparently, big industrial polluters are the enemy. Who are they? Oil refineries, power plants using fossil fuels (especially in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick), sawmills, mines, steel mills, and drillers for gas and oil.
Those polluters will pass the added cost on to their prices. You will see it at the gas pump and in your electric bill. So will your provincial and municipal services, which will have to raise their taxes. So will your grocer and the truckers who bring supplies.
Steel mills provide essential materials for cars and trucks and household appliances. The cost of them will go up.
Meanwhile, Poilievre’s messages have been meagre. Mostly it has been about axing the tax and his urgent desire for an election.
He thinks it urgent for Carney’s pay at Brookfield to be disclosed. That might make sense if he was part of government, but his only pay for his policy work has been paid for by the Liberal party. Poilievre says nothing about climate change.
That said, the Liberals have a serious need of a timeout. Their sins go far beyond the carbon tax. They managed to completely mess up Canada’s excellent system for immigration, bringing in far too many temporary foreign workers and international students. That added demand on already struggling housing and health care providers.
Then, they announced a program costing billions to double the rate of new construction. That would require doubling the number of construction workers, but they evidenced no understanding of that need nor intention to address it.
They have grossly neglected our armed forces and the obligations to our NATO partners. Following orders from the NDP they have begun programs in areas that belong to provinces, who are much better equipped to manage them.
Meanwhile, they have never balanced a budget, productivity has fallen behind the United States, and the Canadian dollar has been lingering below US 70 cents. Their new version of the carbon tax will be charged to big polluters, who will in turn pass it on to customers.
As of polling up to February 9th, the Liberals’ prospects had grown to 85 seats, with the Conservatives at 205. Much of the Liberal growth came at the expense of the NDP.
The Liberals have had a good few weeks, but so far it is not enough to get close to the Conservatives. Stay tuned.